Normal monsoon expected this season: IMD

Normal monsoon expected this season: IMD

This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%. "Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 97 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September", Ramesh told a press conference.

India's weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cms for the entire four-month season beginning June. In 2016, good monsoon has led to record production of oilseeds, food grains and also triggered a 4.2 per cent agriculture growth.

Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient". Forecast on distribution of rainfall and prediction on monthly rains for July, August and September will be made by the IMD in early June.

IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area got excess rainfall and 15 per cent deficient seasonal rainfall.

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A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

Last year, the country as a whole received rainfall that was 95 per cent of its long-period average.

It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains.

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