China trade war could benefit Europe, Mexico, Japan

China trade war could benefit Europe, Mexico, Japan

The study found that European exports will grow by $70 billion, while Japan, Canada and Mexico will see exports increase by more than $20 billion each.

The impact on total USA imports from China in 2018 was "muted", the researchers wrote, largely because of the rush to get ahead of tariffs that it caused on the larger $200 billion list.

Mnuchin said in an interview with CNBC that the talks he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer led in Washington last week with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He were "very productive".

Smaller and poorer countries would struggle to cope with the external shocks, she said and added that the higher cost of the US-China trade would prompt companies to shift away from current east Asian supply chains.

Claiming that the United States has now put China in its place by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump said the U.S. treasury is brimming with money.

Although these figures don't represent a large slice of global trade - which was worth about $17 trillion in 2017 - for many countries they make up a substantial share of exports.

However, the study also underscores that even for countries whose exports are set to increase because of the trade sparring, not all the results will be positive.

The study also underlines that while some countries will see a surge in their exports, negative global effects are likely to dominate.

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A major concern, the report authors said, is the impact the trade dispute will have on a still-fragile global economy.

The China-driven rise in soybean prices in Brazil has also pushed up costs for local businesses that need to buy soybeans for animal feed and other uses.

"Countries that are expected to benefit the most from U.S".

"One major concern is the risk that trade tensions could spiral into currency wars, making dollar-denominated debt more hard to service", the report adds.

The world's two largest economies have 24 days left in a three-month truce in their trade war before U.S. duty rates are due to rise sharply - an escalation that economists say could be a powerful negative shock to the global economy.

Finally, in an interconnected global economy, the tit for tat moves of the trade giants are likely to have a domino effect beyond the countries and sectors targeted.

The United States levied additional duties of between 10 percent and 25 percent on $250 billion of Chinese goods previous year as punishment for what it called unfair trade practices, and the 10 percent tariffs are set to climb to 25 percent unless there is significant headway on a trade deal by March 1.

That impact of the retaliatory tariffs on USA exports, the IIF researchers said, would be the focus of one of their next studies. March 1, 2019 is the deadline for implementing the measures.

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