El Nino Fades so Forecasters Expect Busier Hurricane Season

El Nino Fades so Forecasters Expect Busier Hurricane Season

So far, 2019 has produced two named storms - Subtropical Storm Andrea, which formed before the official 1 June start of the season, and Hurricane Barry, a category one hurricane that hit the south-central Louisiana coast in July.

A year ago brought 15 named storms, including Michael, which struck the Florida panhandle in October with winds of 110mph, killing at least 29.

"El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it's gone, we could see a busier season ahead", said NOAAs Gerry Bell, Ph.D. The chances of near-normal activity is now at 35 per cent and the odds of below-normal activity has dropped to 20 per cent. Among those, NOAA forecasters predict between five to nine of those named storms will become hurricanes, and two to four of those would become major hurricanes.

August through October is traditionally the most active time in the six-month annual hurricane season. Out of those named storms, between 5 to 9 are expected to become hurricanes, which requires wind speeds of at least 74 miles per hour.

Forecasters this year have also increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45 percent, up from a 30 percent chance from the pre-season outlook issued in May. To be classified as a hurricane, a storm must carry winds of at least 74 miles per hour (mph) (119 kilometres per hour (km/h)).

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"Today's updated outlook is a reminder to be prepared", said Pete Gaynor, acting FEMA administrator. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995. This outlook does not attempt to show how many of these storms will impact land or the United States.

The videos also emphasize the importance of following orders from state and local authorities in advance of a storm.

"NOAA encourages residents in communities that can be impacted by landfalling hurricanes to ensure their preparedness measures are in place now to become a more weather-ready nation", NOAA said.

El Nino is the climate phenomenon characterized by warmer than average sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

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