Trump promises report on finances before vote

Trump promises report on finances before vote

President Donald Trump's tweets are having an effect on the stock markets, so much so that JPMorgan & Chase has created a new index, the "Volfefe Index", to analyze how they are influencing volatility in usa interest rates and bond markets.

Numerous most impactful tweets come out in the middle of the United States trading day, whereas the president has tended to remain quiet from 5:00am to 10:00am - presumably while asleep.

"And we find strong evidence that tweets have increasingly moved USA rates markets immediately after publication", the company continued.

The "Volfefe Index", named after Trump's mysterious "covfefe" tweet, suggests that the president's tweets are having a statistically significant effect on Treasury yields. It found that his tweets generally followed a stretch of volatility across global currency markets.

Trump's tweets usually strike the sector around lunchtime on the East Coastline and can lead to a ton of indigestion. While Trump was averaging around 10 tweets a day since 2016, the number has increased in recent months as per the analysis.

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"A broad swath of assets from single-name stocks to macro products have found their price dynamics increasingly beholden to a handful of tweets from the commander in chief", the bond market strategists concluded.

In the report, JP Morgan analysts use machine-learning techniques and their own volatility model to show how the president's 280-character missives serve to raise investors' expectations for future shifts in the bond market. The quantity of market-moving Trump tweets has expanded in the previous month, with those including words, for example, "China", "billion", "items", "democrats", and "incredible", well on the way to influence costs, the experts found. And his every tweet about Federal Reserve, China and trade tensions, is seen as "impactful on near-term economic performance" wrote the authors of the J.P. Morgan report. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch published a note last week concluding that days where President Trump tweets relatively frequently tend to see negative returns of 9 basis points on average.

Out of about 4,000 non-retweets coming during market hours from 2018 to today, about 146 of the tweets moved the market.

However, S&P 500 rose more than 35% since then, trump won the election in 2016, concludes the Agency. On days with fewer than five presidential tweets, the market has risen.

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